“If you know your enemies and know yourself, you will not be imperiled in a hundred battles; if you do not know your enemies but do know yourself, you will win one and lose one; if you do not know your enemies nor yourself, you will be imperiled in every single battle”
The Art of War, Sun Tzu (6th Century BC), Chinese general and military strategist
India is widely believed to have arrived on the global stage. In fact, if one goes by the popular press both domestic and foreign, it is very difficult to not get swayed by the euphony being generated about India and her inevitable ascendance to rightful place in the comity of nations. Nonetheless this essay attempts to desist from merely joining the self-congratulatory chorus and instead objectively analyses the security threats - external, internal, covert and overt, state and non-state - posed to our country. Therefore at the outset, it must be emphasized though I am a strong believer in the idea of India, her resilience and ability to resurrect from every conceivable threat she has faced in the last two millennia; the essay tries to adopt a pragmatic strategist’s approach in the analysis of country’s security environment.
As most of the armies of the world adopt, the paper bases the quantum of threat posed by a security threat through its capability and interest and not by purported intention. We will explicitly list all security threats as well as economic, social, political and technological factors that can give rise to an increased security threat level. We will first analyze external and then internal security threats before evaluating which of the two, if at all, be more threatening to India in the coming decades.
2. EXTERNAL SECURITY THREATS TO INDIA
India has the disadvantage of being situated in close proximity to what is being described as “the epicenter of global terrorism” . Tribal region near the Afghanistan-Pakistan border is constantly drawing attention of America’s...