1. What's fashion forecasting?
It’s the act of predicting or estimating a trend (a change in the consumption from a large group of people). It tries to understand and figure what’s going to happen in the future by watching signals of change on the consumers’ behavior whether in the short term (usually around one year) or in the long term (usually 5 years). This intuitive process looks at the past and studies trends, behaviors and historic facts but also looks into the present and the future to really understand what’s happening right now and what might be happening in the future.
Forecasting is fundamental for everyone who works in the Fashion Industry. It’s an essential tool to plan everything from the marketing department to the window display composition in a store. It helps the market to anticipate and answer the “needs” of the consumers and what they will wish next.
2. The methodology: trickle up theory
This forecasting process happens when we can see a trend starting in the lower levels of society that it’s diffused to the high level ones. It can happen through music, art, style and attitude and it’s normally transported through fashion designers into their collections, magazines etc. The final result of this phenomenon is for example celebrities wearing flip-flops and tattoos, the Saint Laurent’s FW13 collection with a strong influence of street style and even princesses wearing overalls (Princess Diana in the 80’s).
3. Personal perspective
I believe the trickle up theory is one of the most influential methods nowadays in the Fashion industry since the 60s. The Fashion world shifted after the War, women started to have a different role in society and society itself changed. The people on the street started to influence the designers and Art was no longer an elite exclusive thing, making the Fashion world open up for everyone.
Fashion is indeed a reflection of the times and it should be for everyone.